Methodology

The Thesis

When a company is buying back its own stock and its insiders are simultaneously buying shares with their own money, both parties are making the same bet: the stock is undervalued. This convergence of corporate and personal capital is the strongest signal of management conviction.

Bull Market Rides tracks 8 independent signals across the S&P SmallCap 600 to identify this convergence. Every signal is traceable back to a specific SEC filing. No composite score, no black box.

Why the S&P SmallCap 600?

Insider and buyback signals carry the most predictive power where information asymmetry is highest — fewer analysts, lower institutional ownership, slower information diffusion. The S&P 600's profitability requirement (4 consecutive quarters of positive earnings) ensures every company has real free cash flow for our signals to analyze.

Signal Statuses

Each signal can have one of four statuses:

A ride begins when all 7 core signals turn bullish simultaneously and no Red Flag is raised. The ride ends when any signal drops below bull or a Red Flag appears.

Data Sources

• XBRL financial facts from 10-K/10-Q filings (buyback spend, shares repurchased, operating cash flow, capex, shares outstanding)
• Form 4 insider transaction filings (open-market purchases and sales only — option exercises, grants, and tax withholding are excluded)

Quarterly Disclosure Windows

Buyback signals refresh when companies file their quarterly or annual reports with the SEC. Insider signals update daily via Form 4 filings. These quarterly filings typically arrive within the following windows: